No, not a light at the end of the tunnel; a locomotive headed your way!
As we approach the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, it seems like a foregone conclusion that we will have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) sometime within the next year or two.
AGI, Stage 5 on our evolutionary AI ladder (see the article on AGI for the definition), is a type of artificial intelligence with the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level equal to or beyond a human being. The prediction is that any definition of AGI will be satisfied within the next couple of years (see below). This is due to the compounding returns of multimodal AI, plus robotics research, plus everything else currently going on.
Sam Altman, the CEO of Open AI, believes we are a short step away from models that can outperform the “median” human. In other words, 50% of the population.
We're already seeing models that are trained with image, text, embodiment data, and more. The intelligence of some of these models is already far above most humans, particularly when you consider how fast these models work.
The Paradigm Shift
The advent of AGI is going to have a greater impact than both the mechanization of the Second Industrial Revolution and the digital revolution combined. As I’ve previously written, AGI is going to have a huge social and economic impact. It’s a massive technological leap forward with equally massive geopolitical ramifications.
The Need for Adaptation: Government, Business and Individual
There are three primary challenges that I see for government.
The first is adopting AI services for themselves, both to increase efficiency but also to understand the likely consequences of wide scale AI adoption. The level of AI knowledge in government is very low, and knowledge of potential consequences ever lower.
The second is dealing with the fallout from widespread unemployment. Many governments around the world are experimenting with Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a way of addressing some of the worst fallout. However, UBI is not a complete solution, and it’s just a small part of the solution. It will also be essential to distribute wealth and resources much more evenly than we have historically as AI participates more and more in the economy.
According to AI for Good[1], governments can take four key steps to limit job displacement:
Invest in education and training programs for workers.
Encourage entrepreneurship and innovation in the software sector.
Implement a displacement tax, levied on employers when a worker’s job is automated, but the person is not retrained, which could make businesses more inclined to retrain workers.
Offer financial incentives to AI companies to create products designed to augment what workers do, rather than replace them.
The third is paying for all the new social initiatives that will be required. We will have some hard choices to make, but that’s a discussion for another time.
Businesses also need to recognize that this is the most significant paradigm shift in human history, both economically and technologically, and that AI is going to change the competitive landscape.
It’s not necessarily that AI is just going to displace workers, but rather workers using AI will displace workers not using AI. Companies not adopting AI are at risk as their competitors certainly are, and so some businesses will see thinning margins, and that is just because the marginal cost of using AI to do some things is near zero.
There are several ways businesses can mitigate the negative impact of AI on employment. One way is to invest in education and training programs for workers, and workers will need to be prepared to retrain several times during their working lifetimes. This will help workers acquire the skills they need to thrive in the rapidly changing job market. Companies can provide training programs for their existing workers, while policymakers can invest in education and training programs by providing incentives at the national and local level.
The advent of AGI is not a matter of if, but when. It's crucial for businesses, governments, and individuals to start preparing and adapting for this paradigm shift. The impact of AGI will be far-reaching and transformative, and those who fail to adapt may find themselves left behind.
So, what can individuals do?
To prepare themselves for what lies ahead, individuals should either master a range of AI-related skills or reskill in areas where AI’s will have less impact. For example, occupations requiring extensive human interaction or decision-making. Or physical labor (at least for the time being).
In today's dynamic landscape, mastering AI skills is not just a luxury but a necessity. It can propel your career and personal growth to new heights. With AI introducing smart automation across various sectors, organizations now have the advantage of intelligent systems that streamline tasks like email management. Whether it's sorting emails, responding to routine queries, or flagging urgent ones, AI is revolutionizing the way we work, so here are some suggestions:
Accelerate Learning with LLMs: The ability to learn quickly is invaluable. Leveraging Learning Management Systems (LLMS) powered by AI can significantly accelerate the learning curve, ensuring you stay ahead of the curve.
Learn Visual Data Presentation: In the AI era, data is king. But understanding and presenting this data visually is equally crucial. Our brains are wired to process visual information faster than text, making data visualization an essential skill. Whether you're tailoring AI responses or mastering speed learning, presenting data in a visually engaging manner can make all the difference.
Learn to use AI-Powered tools for Content Creation: With the digital space flooded with content, standing out is challenging. AI tools, like GPT-4, are revolutionizing content creation. From writing blog posts to generating logo designs based on brand inputs, AI amplifies creativity and efficiency.
Acquire Basic Programming and Machine Learning Skills: In the digital age, having a foundational understanding of programming is indispensable. It provides a deeper insight into the digital realm, setting you apart from the masses. Additionally, grasping machine learning algorithms can offer valuable insights, enhancing decision-making processes, sales strategies, and more.
Become Familiar with Natural Language Processing (NLP): As AI systems become integral parts of our lives, the ability for machines to understand human language is paramount. NLP bridges this gap, making our interactions with AI more seamless and productive. Coupled with AI-based data analysis, it's a game-changer for smarter decision-making.
Work out how to use AI Tools for developing Business Insights: In the business world, understanding your customer is key. AI tools offer a deep dive into customer behavior, providing invaluable insights that can shape your business strategy. Moreover, with social media algorithms constantly evolving, leveraging AI can boost engagement and elevate brand visibility.
The skills mentioned above are not just beneficial—they're transformative. By mastering them, you're not just keeping pace with the AI era; you're leading the charge. These skills can open doors to opportunities across various fields, ensuring you're always at the forefront of innovation.
Don't just adapt; lead the change.
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